James Dobson abandons Giuliani and supports a third party candidate? He’s loud about his dissatisfaction that Giuliani is leading the Republican field. He hates the fact that Giuliani has policies that are closer to Clinton than to social conservatives. He will only accept an anti-choice candidate. He doesn’t trust that Giuliani will appoint Justices that are conservative, based on Giuliani’s record that’s probably a good bet. So James Dobson threatens promises to break free from the Republican party if Giuliani is elected the nominee.
What will this mean for the GOP? Considering that exit polls on election day in 2004 showed that 22% of voters labeled themselves Evangelical Christian, it would probably secure a Democratic win. That is, if Dobson could muster enough of them to defy their ingrained Republican voting tradition.
I was watching Face the Nation on Sunday and the guest was Tony Perkins, President of the Family Research Council. He appeared to back peddle a bit on Dobson’s statement by stating, “What we said last week was more of a proclamation of principle rather than a declaration of intent.” He then stated that “If the party chooses to break its commitment to creating a culture of life, we’re not going to go in that direction with the party.” during a conference call on Thursday with reporters. To me this sounds pretty much like an intention.
On Face the Nation, Perkins went on to say that the Conservative movement is comparable to a three legged stool the Fiscal Conservatives, the Foreign Policy Conservatives, and the Social Conservatives. He implored the other 2/3 of the party to throw their support to the Social Conservatives and their anti-choice agenda. Without all three legs they will “impale” themselves. Thursday, Perkins stated that he believed roughly half of the Religious Right would vote for Giuliani anyway but that’s still a lot of votes to lose.
So what will this mean for the Democrats? Probably a bigger win over the Republican nominee. Unless, that is, Mitt Romney starts climbing faster. He appears to be the Evangelicals’ favorite at this time with Perkins stating Thursday, “he’s one of the strongest on our issues. It’s true he has had a change of position on these issues. I do believe they’re genuine. I do not see him going back.”