14 months after releasing a report that Afghanistan was once again in danger of becoming a Taliban controlled state, the Senlis Council has released a new, damn scary report entitled, Stumbling Into Chaos: Afghanistan on the Brink.

According to the report, 54% of Afghanistan is occupied by a permanent Taliban presence. You may remember that after the US led invasion in 2001 the Taliban was pushed out of Afghanistan. Now they are back and with a strong hold on this nation. In fact, in much of the southern portion of Afghanistan the Taliban is the unofficial government and they are gaining more and more support. This chart shows just how much ground has been lost to the Taliban.

Taliban leaders have often declared that they will retake Kabul in 2008, this now appears to be the case. Due to the turbulent history and regime change in Afghanistan the citizens are more open to leadership upheavals and the Taliban has been able to convert more and more to be supporters. The people feel let down by NATO and have not seen much of the promised relief that actually affects their daily lives. Their loyalties are able to be bought and the Taliban is exploiting this and growing stronger.

They have also adopted strategies that have been effective in the Iraq insurgency such as suicide bombings and advanced IEDs. The NATO troops have been effective in driving the Taliban out of parts of Afghanistan but they do not have the needed troop strength to keep them out, thus they are forced to fight the same battles over and over while consistently losing ground.

The Senlis Council has drawn out very specific recommendations to keep Afghanistan from becoming completely under Taliban control and to fight the insurgency, which is increasingly supported by Al Qaeda from neighboring Pakistan. The first recommendation is to double the amount of ground troops.

They call on NATO members to increase their troop levels and bring the troop numbers to 71,000 the remaining troops would come from non-NATO countries especially Muslim countries to garner more of the citizens’ support. They have split these non-NATO troops into three categories:

• As “bridge building” workers sent into villages with the NATO troops.
• As high ranking command officers working alongside commanders in NATO headquarters.
• As ground soldiers with NATO troops.

The second recommendation is to change the Rules of Engagement in Afghanistan to revolve around the following 3 ideas.

• To focus on intelligence and use this to plan strategy.
• To give aid especially in the South and Eastern parts of the country that have been nearly destroyed.
• To try and recruit the “marginal insurgents” or those who are part of the uprising because of economical reasons.

The report places great emphasis on the fact that our failures in providing aid to the people of Afghanistan have led to much of the changing loyalties. A key piece in turning back the Taliban will be in how NATO countries, especially the US, distribute aid. A majority of Afghan people live in “appalling” conditions and many are malnourished and lack access to basic amenities. In the 6 years since the Taliban was overthrown the Afghan government has not improved the conditions for its people. This means that in order to stop the public’s conversion to supporting regime change to the Taliban, NATO must change the efforts it makes in distributing aid.

“Aid disbursed in Afghanistan must address the immediate needs of the Afghan people, improve the country’s infrastructure and economy, empower Afghanistan’s youth, and aim to reduce inequalities.” (( Stumbling Into Chaos: Afghanistan on the Brink ~ Senlis Afghanistan pg. 74 ))

The report, which I encourage you to read in its entirety, is well constructed, goes over the history of Afghanistan and its neighboring countries in detail to give a very honest look at the dynamics on the ground. The only problem is now getting our leaders to pay attention and to address the growing threats. There is no apparent plan within NATO to increase troop presence or to address the growing humanity crisis.